|
Rethinking the Future: Leadership for the 21st
Century
“Today’s knowledge revolution, having launched a gigantic ‘Third
Wave’ of economic, technical and social change, is forcing
businesses to operate in radically new, continually shifting ways….every
shred of industrial-era thinking is now being rescrutinized and
brilliantly reformulated.”
—Alvin and Heidi Toffler
The industrial age of business was
a system that operated with linearity and logic— with vertical
integration, synergy, economies of scale, and hierarchical, command-and-control
modi operandi. This is giving way to new forms of outsourcing,
minimization of scale, an emphasis on profit centers, networks
and other diverse forms of organization.
When an old paradigm crumbles and a new one is not yet securely
in place, we experience frequent bursts of creative thinking. Accompanying
this is an equivalent degree of chaos and confusion, with feelings
of uncertainty.
Moving into the 21st century amid such radical change and confusion
has proved difficult for business leaders. What questions must
leaders ask themselves and their organizations to gain clarity
about the road ahead? How do you develop a new vision when there
are hints that current strategies may not work in the future?
What business leaders will need is
a more comprehensive model of reality. Leaders
of the future must not only focus on economics and management
issues, but also on ways to respond to social, technological,
political, cultural, religious and environmental shocks to their
systems. Hurricanes, tsunamis, war and terrorism can have a devastating
impact on one’s business.
We need to rethink our previous assumptions
about where we are going—in business, as well as our societal
infrastructure. This mandate is further underscored by a growing
sense of discomfort in the business community. What we have known
and depended upon for past successes is no longer sufficient
when preparing for the future.
Past sources of authority and order have been eroded by new technologies
and ideologies that have shifted power from the institution to
the individual. Some people are more capable than others of assuming
individual responsibility. It could be said that empowerment is
not for everyone.
New Customers
With the demise of communism, one-third
of the world’s population
has joined the ranks of consumers. Will capitalism become rampant
and extreme, causing an even more serious division between the
haves and the have-nots?
Capitalism and the relentless pursuit
of prosperity are not without pitfalls. Some
of us wonder where this is leading and why we’re
racing to get there. What, exactly, is this race doing to our lives,
communities and environment? These are uncomfortable questions
in uncomfortable times.
In place of certainty, there is a pervasive sense that industrial
societies are in deep trouble as we race toward the edge of chaos.
This chaos is bearable if we regard it as a period of violent transition,
where the old order of things gives way to the new. At the same
time, there is also a sense of tremendous adventure and opportunity
for all.
Preparing for Tomorrow
How do we construct a framework to rethink the future?
Many leaders have written about the needs of the future, but they
do not offer a crystal ball. They do, however, provide a framework
for thinking about the decades ahead, posing questions that we,
as leaders, must consider.
Three concepts emerge from interviews
and conversations with leading futurists, as revealed in the
book Rethinking the Future, edited by Rowan Gibson (1998). Gibson’s
book was most assuredly ahead of its time, featuring concepts
that are truer today than when he initially submitted his manuscript.
A Different Game
The first of Gibson’s themes is “the road stops here” – the
realization that the future will be different from the past. Most
of us behave as though this is untrue. Today’s leaders steadfastly
cling to the notion that what worked in the past will work again.
They also incorrectly assume that when things go wrong, they can
be fixed, thus returning them to the way things are “supposed” to
be. This, unfortunately, is delusional thinking, as things will
never be the same again. The past is gone: That was then; this
is now. The 21st century is a new ballgame, and the rules are still
being worked out.
New Rules
Gibson’s second premise is that “new times call for
new kinds of organizations.” It
is incumbent upon organizations to navigate rough and uncertain
business terrains that they have never before encountered. Organizations
must be flexible and capable of handling the demands of the information
age – not the
industrial age of the past. What kind of organization will work
at optimum levels in a “new rules” kind of game?
New Leadership
Gibson’s third theme poses a critical question: “Where
do we go next?” Leaders are finding it increasingly difficult
to make confident strategic decisions. Yes, you need a vision,
a destination and a point of view about the future. You also need
to know in which direction to channel the efforts of the people
with whom you work.
The problem with all of this? There
is no concrete or tested roadmap. The future is terra incognita.
Leaders will be forced to look ahead and explore for themselves
when making decisions. The challenge requires a new breed of
leader—one who is part explorer,
part inventor and more visionary than predecessors. How do you
become this type of leader, as well as hire your company’s
future leaders?
New Assumptions
The future is not a continuation of the past. Rather,
it’s
a series of discontinuities. While this can breed opportunity,
it’s uncomfortable for those who lead to know with certainty
what lies ahead. We must challenge our assumptions at every juncture
in the decision-making process and unlearn the past. This can be
tricky, as our assumptions are so ingrained that we hardly notice
them. Trusted advisors and colleagues may hold the same assumptions
and never challenge our thinking.
If you want to escape the gravitational
pull of the past, you have to be willing to challenge your own
orthodoxies… to
regenerate your core strategies and rethink your most fundamental
assumptions about how you are going to compete.
– C.K. Prahalad
Questions for the 21st Century
The following questions are a good launching pad for changing
your linear way of thinking in our new nonlinear world:
| • |
Why
is the nature of competition changing so drastically? |
| • |
What
is the new “network economy”? How does it fundamentally
differ from the industrial economy? |
| • |
Is
it better to be big and powerful or small and flexible in the
global economy? Should companies broaden their product lines,
or should they become more specialized and focused? |
| • |
Will
technology make geographical location increasingly irrelevant? |
| • |
Will
Asia’s modernization shift the world’s center of
economic, political and cultural gravity from the Western to
the Eastern world? |
| • |
With
the demise of communism, will different forms of capitalism
emerge? Does capitalism have a future, or has it become a liability? |
| • |
As
technology democratizes not just our workplaces, but our societies
and world, does it foreshadow the end of government as we know
it? |
Organizations as Biological Organisms
In the 21st century, the new organization
must leave all traces of slow, bureaucratic and hierarchical
top-down systems behind. To thrive,
it must become flexible, fast and attuned to customers’ needs.
The new organization will resemble
a biological organism more than a machine. It
will consist of a distributed network of minds – people
working and learning together, both inside and outside company
walls, with an invitation for customers to participate. Ideally,
it will be conscious of the ways it affects the natural environment.
How can you prepare your organization
to evolve in this direction? The
challenge calls for radical change. As Peter Drucker has said, “Every
organization has to prepare for the abandonment of everything it
does.”
Here are some questions to examine:
| • |
How do we create a
radically decentralized, networked organization? |
| • |
Which principles will guide the
successful 21st-century enterprise? Should top management give
employees a meaningful voice when it comes to ownership and
running the company? |
| • |
As corporations and their networks
become increasingly complex, how will we control them? Will
companies develop a bottom-up type of control, as we find in
a swarm of bees or flock of birds? |
| • |
Will the shift to a new management
model become a global phenomenon, or will there be different
rates of progress in distinct parts of the world? |
What’s Next?
Many organizations are investing capital
in operational efficiency, as if it were a destination unto itself. “Lean and mean” does
not lead to success in the new century.
Winning organizations will be those
that stay ahead of the change curve, creating new markets and
reinventing the rules of competition. As
Charles Handy says, “The successful organizations will
be those who ‘invent the world,’ not just respond to
it.”
New leadership is required. Leaders
will need to look forward, scan the landscape, and spot trends
and new opportunities. They will use advanced technology to give
them an interactive, real-time connection with the marketplace,
receiving feedback from sensors at the organization’s peripheries.
In the words of Rowan Gibson, new leaders “will
decentralize power and democratize strategy by involving a rich
mixture of different people from inside and outside the organization
in the process of inventing the future.”
Review the following questions so you can rethink leadership and
strategy for the 21st century:
| • |
Is
your organization managing the present, without thinking about
creating the future? |
| • |
Who
should be involved in developing and implementing strategy? |
| • |
How
important will technology be in creating a competitive advantage? |
| • |
How
can your company balance the need for radical change with the
need for strategic continuity? When does it actually become
necessary to change your competitive strategy? |
| • |
What
can you do to make the most of emerging opportunities? How
can you minimize risks? |
| • |
What
will be required to lead successfully in a global economy? |
| • |
What
can leaders do to ensure their corporate culture will be a
strategic asset, rather than a change anchor? |
| • |
Does
the organization have a responsibility to give people a connection
with their purpose in life? |
Six Steps to Rethinking the Future
Leaders are encouraged to think deeply about the issues that will
change how business is conducted in the 21st century. There are
no easy answers. Serious thought and discussion will help you stay
in the game while the rules are being changed.
The following concepts deserve ongoing consideration among top
management teams:
| 1. |
Rethinking
Principles |
| 2. |
Rethinking
Competition |
| 3. |
Rethinking
Control and Complexity |
| 4. |
Rethinking
Leadership |
| 5. |
Rethinking
Markets |
| 6. |
Rethinking
the World |
For more information on these concepts, and to access the thoughts
of leading business authors, read Rethinking the Future, by Rowan
Gibson (Nicholas Brealey Publishing, London, 1998). The book includes
original contributions by Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Warren Bennis,
Stephen Covey, Eli Goldratt, Gary Hamel, Michael Hammer, Charles
Handy, Kevin Kelly, Philip Kotler, John Kotter, John Naisbitt,
Michael Porter, C.K. Prahalad, Al Ries, Peter Senge, Lester Thurow
and Jack Trout.
Working
Resources is a Leadership Consulting, Training and Executive Coaching
Firm Helping Companies Assess, Select, Coach and Retain Emotionally
Intelligent People; Emotional Intelligence-Based Interviewing and
Selection; Multi-Rater 360-Degree Feedback; Career Coaching; Change
Management; Corporate Culture Surveys and Executive Coaching.
Dr. Maynard Brusman
Consulting Psychologist and Executive Coach
Trusted Advisor to Senior Leadership Teams
Subscribe to Working Resources FREE E-mail Newsletter.
E-mail:mbrusman@workingresources.com . Type Subscribe Newsletter.
Voice: 415-546-1252 Web:www.workingresources.com
E-mail This Article to a Collegue...
Return
to Professional Effectiveness Articles Index
|
